Trump Endorsement WON’T Stop This Texas Showdown

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has declared he will remain in the Senate race against establishment incumbent John Cornyn regardless of whether President Trump endorses his opponent, defying conventional political wisdom and exposing the deep fracture between grassroots conservatives and the Republican establishment.

Story Highlights

Paxton vows to continue his Senate challenge even without Trump’s endorsement, citing his duty to Texas voters
March 3 primary forced a May 26 runoff after neither Cornyn nor Paxton secured a majority, triggering a costly intraparty battle
Conservative polling shows Paxton holds 62% approval among strong Republicans versus Cornyn’s 45%, despite the incumbent’s 22-year Senate tenure
The race represents over $100 million in campaign spending, potentially diverting GOP resources from critical battleground states

Paxton’s Defiant Stand Against Establishment Politics

Ken Paxton made clear he will not bow out of the Senate race even if President Trump throws his support behind John Cornyn. “We’re going to win… even without Trump,” Paxton stated, demonstrating remarkable confidence in his grassroots support. This defiance speaks directly to conservatives frustrated with establishment Republicans who talk conservatively during campaigns but govern as Washington insiders. Paxton dismissed Cornyn as “Fake John Cornyn,” a label that resonates with voters tired of politicians who claim Trump’s mantle while voting for Ukraine funding and gun control negotiations.

⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ PLEASE DON’T ENDORSE. LET TX DECIDE. “I’M STAYING IN THIS RACE” — Texas AG Ken Paxton Vows Not to Drop Senate Bid Even if Trump Endorses RINO John Cornyn: ‘I Owe it to the People of Texas’ https://t.co/eFfz2RZi3j

— ArmyMom224⛪️✝️🇺🇸🪖 (@ArmyMom224) March 5, 2026

Primary Results Force High-Stakes Runoff Battle

The March 3 primary election revealed significant conservative dissatisfaction with the incumbent senator. Neither Cornyn nor Paxton secured the majority needed to avoid a runoff, despite Cornyn’s massive fundraising advantage and $4.1 million cash on hand. Representative Wesley Hunt’s third-place finish split enough votes to prevent an outright winner, forcing a May 26 runoff showdown. This marks Cornyn’s first serious renomination challenge in 24 years, signaling that Texas conservatives are no longer willing to rubber-stamp establishment candidates simply because they have seniority and name recognition.

Conservative Voters Question Cornyn’s Record

Polls from the University of Houston’s Hobby School show Paxton edging Cornyn among likely primary voters, with 36% saying they would definitely consider Paxton versus 32% for Cornyn. More telling, University of Texas Austin data reveals Paxton commands 62% approval among strong conservatives compared to Cornyn’s 45%. These numbers reflect conservative concerns about Cornyn’s willingness to negotiate with Democrats on gun violence measures and his support for Ukraine aid—positions that alienate the America First base. While Cornyn touts his 92% alignment with Trump during the first term, conservatives remember his establishment tendencies when it matters most.

Establishment Counterattack Targets Paxton’s Past

Cornyn’s campaign has launched aggressive attacks calling Paxton a “fraud” and “self-centered” liability, referencing his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House on bribery charges. Cornyn warned that “Judgment Day is coming for Ken Paxton,” attempting to paint the attorney general as too scandal-plagued to win a general election. However, Paxton was acquitted by the Texas Senate, and he previously won his 2022 primary despite facing a felony securities fraud indictment—demonstrating that conservative voters care more about fighting for their values than about establishment media narratives. This pattern suggests Texans are willing to overlook legal controversies when they believe a candidate will actually fight against government overreach and woke agendas.

The race’s broader implications extend beyond Texas. Political strategists note that a $100 million-plus primary battle could drain resources from critical Senate battlegrounds in Michigan and North Carolina. Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo argued Trump has “$200 million reasons” to back Cornyn, suggesting the president might make a “business decision” to preserve party resources. Yet this establishment calculus misses what conservative voters actually want: fighters who will challenge the Washington swamp, not accommodate it. The outcome will signal whether the Republican Party’s future belongs to grassroots conservatives demanding change or establishment figures prioritizing electability calculations over principles.