President Trump told a crowd that New York has become a “national disgrace” under Democratic leadership, pointing to taxpayers fleeing the state — but the city’s own financial records show tax collections and population actually climbing at the same time.
Story Snapshot
- State tax data show a net loss of thousands of taxpayers in recent years, concentrated among residents ages 26 to 44.
- New York City’s comptroller reports tax collections and population both rose in the same period Trump describes as decline.
- No audit, indictment, or official finding ties the outflow to corruption by named Democratic officials.
- Independent research groups say state tax rates have little to no measurable effect on where people choose to move.
Taxpayers Are Leaving, But the Full Picture Is More Complex
New York State tax records show a net outflow of 74,482 tax returns in 2022–2023, with losses heaviest among people ages 26 to 44. A separate review of 2024 state data found 134,913 part-year filers left New York while 121,251 moved in, a net loss of 13,662 taxpayers. New York also carries the nation’s highest combined state and local tax burden, averaging $12,495 per resident, about 78% above the national average.
Those numbers are real, and they help explain why Trump’s framing resonates with residents who feel squeezed by high costs. But migration data alone cannot explain why people left. The state figures track movement, not motive — they do not separate out taxes, housing prices, job changes, retirement, or family reasons as causes of the departures.
City Revenue and Population Numbers Tell a Different Story
New York City Comptroller reports paint a different picture than the one Trump describes. Total city tax collections rose 8.3%, reaching $80.3 billion in fiscal year 2025, and first-half fiscal year 2026 collections climbed another 6.8%, or $3.15 billion, compared to the year before. The city’s employment-to-population ratio hit a record high of 58.8% by September 2025, even as the national ratio has been slipping.
Population figures tell a similar story. City population bottomed out in 2022 and has grown in each of the two years since, though it remains below its pre-pandemic peak. Statewide, population also grew in 2023 and 2024 because of international migration and a slowdown in people leaving for other states. A city credit review cited that growth, along with steady tax revenue, as reasons for an improved financial outlook.
No Documented Proof Ties Corruption to the Decline
Trump’s claim centers on corruption and incompetence by Democratic leaders, but no audit, indictment, inspector-general report, or court finding in the available record ties a named New York Democratic official to the population or tax losses. The state’s own fiscal pressures are real — New York City faces a projected $5.79 billion budget gap for fiscal year 2026 — but that gap coexists with a forecast $1.39 billion surplus the same year, a sign of a strained but not collapsing system.
The claim also blends two different governments. State tax-filer migration, statewide population, and New York City’s budget and revenue are separate systems with separate causes. Attributing a statewide trend to city leadership, or the reverse, mixes figures that do not measure the same thing.
Research Finds Taxes Aren’t the Main Driver of Moves
Several independent studies undercut the idea that high taxes alone are pushing New Yorkers out. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities found that differences in state tax levels have little to no effect on whether or where Americans move. The Fiscal Policy Institute’s review of Census, IRS, and state tax data found no statistically significant evidence that New York’s tax increases drove out high earners, noting the wealthiest residents actually leave at the lowest rates.
This pattern isn’t new. Similar arguments surfaced during New York City’s 1970s fiscal crisis and Illinois’s population decline, where critics blamed local policy for losses later tied to broader forces like housing costs and job markets. The dispute over New York today fits that same mold — real numbers, contested causes, and plenty of room for both sides to pick the statistics that support their story.
Sources:
facebook.com, comptroller.nyc.gov, finance.sina.com.cn
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